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Obesity projections

Last updated 14-05-2021

Researchers have used models to predict obesity progression among Australian adults. Modelling of obesity rates by age 60 across four birth cohorts shows that socioeconomic inequality in obesity is widening.

Key Evidence

01

24.6% of men of low socioeconomic position born in 1970 will be severely obese by age 60

02

25.8% of women of low socioeconomic position born in 1970 will be obese by age 60

Obesity outcomes by birth cohort, gender and socioeconomic position at age 60

Modelling for Australians across four birth cohorts (born 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970) shows that socioeconomic inequality in obesity is widening. Among men there was no inequality in obesity prevalence at age 60 for the 1940 birth cohort, but for the 1970 cohort there was an 11% difference in obesity prevalence between Australians of low socioeconomic position and those with a high socioeconomic position.

Men

Hayes A, Tan EJ, et al. 2019. Socioeconomic inequalities in obesity: modelling future trends in Australia. BMJ Open 9(3): e026525.

Note: Obesity = BMI>30kg/m2, Severe obesity = BMI>35kg/m2

Obesity prevalence: low SEP Obesity prevalence: high SEP Severe obesity prevalence: low SEP Severe obesity prevalence: high SEP

Females

Hayes A, Tan EJ, et al. 2019. Socioeconomic inequalities in obesity: modelling future trends in Australia. BMJ Open 9(3): e026525.

Note: Obesity = BMI>30kg/m2, Severe obesity = BMI>35kg/m2

Obesity prevalence: low SEP Obesity prevalence: high SEP Severe obesity prevalence: low SEP Severe obesity prevalence: high SEP